In other words, they no longer are journals of record, but of prophecy. It’s an understandable trend, given yesterday’s news is no longer, well, news, by the time they get around to printing it. Everyone has read it online via Twitter or Facebook or Google.
But at least those who publish a record of past events can be judged for accuracy against the memories of others. With forecasting, you can say what you like. And you can always count on no-one remembering what you tipped, a year, six months, a month or even a week later.
Cast your mind back to late 2007 just after the election of the Rudd government. The newspapers were full of analysis saying that Labor had begun a new era of dominance that would cast the Coalition into irrelevance for a generation or more:
Welcome to the Rudd dynasty. With his thumping election victory and a new-look frontbench which blends experience, talent and fresh blood, Kevin Rudd has a golden chance of locking in a decade of Labor rule.
That was News Ltd’s Steve Lewis, riffing in the Daily Telegraph on November 30, 2007, on the startling supremacy of Kevin Rudd and his astounding political acumen in ridding the nation of Howardism and creating a team for the ages.
But surely, you might say, that perpetual ‘seer’ and sage of political journalism, Paul ‘Polonius’ Kelly, would have a keener sense of the ephemeral nature of political fortunes and sound a more cautious note in his commentary?:
The Kevin Rudd era has begun. It is expected to last a long time. Rudd offers a new brand of leadership for Australia that breaks not just from John Howard but from Labor’s past. Rudd enjoys a big majority, an unqualified mandate, a growth economy, a Labor Party invigorated by a surge of fresh talent and a demoralised Liberal Party that will take many years to recover.
Yes, that was Father Kelly, pontificating from his lofty pulpit in The Australian, on November 26 2007. His pitiful record is worth recalling as the self-appointed experts of the press gallery line up to share with readers their wisdom in the coming weeks and months about the likely fortunes of the new minority government.
The truth is nobody really knows what will happen next. But if you have to say something interesting every day, or every hour, you’re going to stretch for significance, mistake noise for signal and start believing your own bullshit. The good news is we don’t have to read it.
1 Comment
Anonymous · September 16, 2010 at 12:29 PM
Only a fool or a madman makes predictions and expects to be taken seriously.
On much surer ground commenting with hindsight. Labor's fortunes headed backwards as the voters were subjected to the overwhelming influence of a biased, shallow media 'effort' in the campaign (and for the months leading up to). If the media whores had taken their jobs seriously and given Abbott anything like a reasonable amount of scrutiny, challenged him on his childish slogans and extremist policies, the election wouldn't have even been close.
He'd have become the roadkill that he predicted.